Parts 1 and 2 likely conveyed a hint of cynicism. Any cynicism would be based on an examination of various documents: specifically, the most recently available Winnipeg Police Business Plan and the recently submitted Capital Budget request. Neither mentions a helicopter which might suggest that acquiring one is a ‘Johnny come lately’ idea.
Based on media reports, it would appear that acquiring a helicopter was not high on the minds of anyone – not the mayor, the police service, nor the province – until the idea was refloated by the Winnipeg Sun about a year ago. Was there a memo somewhere that decisions re police tactics and approaches now come under the umbrella of the Winnipeg Sun?!
Be that as it may, at least according to newspaper reports, a Sun reporter brought up the topic with the police service a few months later and they subsequently agreed to study the issue.
Could it be that the Sun’s giddiness about a helicopter is related to a desire for naming rights? ‘Sun 1’ has a nice ring to it and goes well with the ‘midnight sun’ feature most police helicopters are equipped with. Perhaps the mayor’s ‘put your name on a piece of Winnipeg’ campaign is about to pay off.
The study of the issue by police started some 10 months ago. The report generated by that study has not been shared publicly. Perhaps the mayor has a copy, but it’s probably too complicated for the tax paying masses to comprehend.
What the Report Most Likely Contains
One can only guess at what is contained in the report. Probably fairly precise figures as to the cost of purchasing a helicopter together with the cost of the special equipment required in order for a helicopter to be useful in an urban setting. It may outline additional costs relating to leasing hangar space. Appropriate housing space is critical if the helicopter is to meet the “it can be in the air in a matter of minutes” criteria expressed by the Winnipeg Police Service, especially on those minus 30 degree days. Suffice it to say the purchase and storage costs are the easiest to estimate and will be in the report.
Based on the experience of other police departments, the operating costs can also be determined with a high degree of precision. A figure for salary costs (pilot and spotter), plus fuel, maintenance, insurance etc., can all be plugged into the costing formula.
Determining the cost side is the easy part. It’s determining the benefits side that requires greater discussion and presents more challenges.
The Report will no doubt contain operational performance information from other police departments such as Edmonton and Calgary listing total flight hours, response times, vehicle pursuits and foot chases managed, as well as the number of arrests directly attributable to the presence of the helicopter. And by the way, Winnipeg must be looking at some kind of ‘super’ whirlybird as, according to the Winnipeg Police, it’s expected to be in the air some “4 to 5 hours a day”. That is actually quite amazing: the Edmonton police helicopter, for example, had an all time high of 1150 flight hours in 2007 which equates to 3.15 hours of flight time when averaged over 365 days. There is a limit to how many hours a year a helicopter can be flown from a technical maintenance and safety standpoint. The only way to achieve the suggested four to five hours a day would be to restrict the helicopter to only flying between 230 and 287 days a year.
Without questioning the validity of the figures from other police agencies the definition of the terms being used is important. One must remember that when new programs, or equipment acquisitions (particularly expensive ones as in this case) are being evaluated, the definition of terms such as ‘arrest directly attributable to’ becomes important in terms of evaluating the actual role played by the new technology or approach that is under study.
The report, in addition, will no doubt include one of the mayor’s favorite lines of reasoning about how in terms of efficiency a helicopter on the ground is the equivalent to a large number of police officers on the ground. A study conducted by KPMG pegged that figure at 15 two-person units. That’s a ratio of 30:1 – even higher than the 18:1 ratio the mayor talked about.
What the Report Should Contain
The report should reflect the realities of policing in Winnipeg with the ultimate decision being based on a careful examination of the intended use of a helicopter.
This would involve preparing a list of all the call types (situations and scenarios) to which a helicopter would be most likely dispatched.
A review of historic calls for service data would determine the frequency of the types of calls identified for helicopter dispatch. (Such an analysis should be mandatory in any event to determine when most of those calls occur so as to best determine during which hours of the day a helicopter should be deployed.) Once those data are available the following questions need to be answered:
- How many calls identified for helicopter dispatch ( vehicle pursuits, pursuits of suspects on foot, and of course those other examples cited – putting snipers on roofs, locating lost elderly people in the Assiniboine forest) occur in Winnipeg on an annual basis;
- How many of those calls occur during the proposed helicopter flight hours;
- In what percentage of cases would the presence of a helicopter make an appreciable difference in terms of a successful conclusion to the call for service/incident?
Only once those numbers have been determined, can the cost per incident of helicopter usage be established. It’s simple mathematics.
Even that step is fairly basic compared to establishing the benefits. Benefits come in the form of either real savings or opportunity savings. ‘Savings’ in this context are not usually calculated in terms of millions of dollars that can be removed from the police budget; rather, they are primarily in the form of opportunity savings. Opportunity savings are defined as savings in terms of freeing up resources to do other things because of the deployment of a helicopter.
Consider the scenario of a helicopter being dispatched to do a flyover over of a ‘brawl’ that involves a large number of brawlers. (This is an example given by the Winnipeg Police although no media reporting of brawls comes to mind.) Further, suppose the helicopter crew were to determine that it was actually a fight between two or three people as opposed to a brawl involving a large number of people and therefore less likely to spin out of control or require a large police presence. In such a case the patrol units dispatched to the event could be diverted to other activities, thereby creating an opportunity saving. In other words, instead of wasting their time driving to a non-existent brawl they could perform other policing functions. Opportunity savings, if properly invested, can enhance efficiency and effectiveness.
The report should address all potential opportunity-saving scenarios and once those are quantified, the next step would be to address the issue of how those ‘savings’ would be invested. Unless those savings can be directed into specific areas of police operations and used to translate operational activities into tangible outcomes (such as a reduction in response times, the overall crime rate, or a reduction in crime rate related to specific crimes, i.e. residential break in or non-commercial robberies which are currently on the rise in Winnipeg), the savings would be meaningless. They become nothing more than paper tigers in support of a weak argument.
Once the capital and operational costs, the per-call cost, and the question of how the opportunity savings will be invested has been determined, politicians can start wrapping their heads around the issue and intelligently address the appropriate question, that is, do the Winnipeg Police need a helicopter vs. the want aspect of the question.
The following questions need to be answered by our politicians: Can the per incident cost of having a helicopter be justified? Are the opportunity savings real, and have they been presented in the form of evidence based outcomes that are measureable? Lastly, if the police service were given 1 to 1.5 million dollars of new money annually with the understanding it was to be applied to the most effective and most efficient means of preventing crime, reducing crime, and enhancing community safety, would they then use it to purchase a helicopter?