Flaws in the 2010 Winnipeg Police Annual Report – Part IV

There are a lot of parts to this fiasco and I don’t think it’s quite finished yet.

This post presents a table that provides a 2009/2010 side by side comparison of many of the statistic categories in the Winnipeg Police Annual Report.  The table was created for informational purposes but I will comment on several of the categories.

1.  Police to Population Ratio

In the 2009 Annual Report the “authorized” police complement was used (674,800/1348) to calculate the ratio at 1:501.  The 2010 Annual  Report used the “actual” police complement (684,061/1400) with a resulting ratio of 1:488.  Had the actual complement been used in 2009 the ratio would have been 1:478 and had the authorized complement been used in 2010, the ratio would have been 1:503.

When calculating ratios that are carried forward from year to year for comparison purposes it is important to apply the same rules from year to year.  If the approach is changed a note should be attached to identify the change, and the purpose of the change.

2. Police to Staff Ratio

The Winnipeg Police Service police to staff ratio has lagged behind that of other major Canadian Police Departments for years and is an issue that needs to be addressed.  The 9% increase in 2010 seems to address the issue to a degree.  What the report does not indicate is what portion of that change reflects the addition of the new staff category of Cadets.  The addition of this new employee category should have been noted in the report.

3.  Total Crimes

No matter how you cut it, the 2010 Annual Report lists 61,680 reported crimes  compared to 56,427 in 2009.  That works out to a 9% increase according to the ‘rithmatic.  Note thus far that only the English version of the report has been released – the French version has yet to be released.

4. Persons Charged and Clearance Rate

The number of persons charged dropped from 16,525 in 2009 to 13,604 in 2010 representing a decrease of 18%.  The clearance rate, though, is shown as increasing by 1% from 24 to 25 from 2009 to 2010.  That may bear some closer examination since, generally, there is a correlation between the number of persons charged and the clearance rate .

Category

2009

2010

Variance 2009-2010   (%)

Demographics/Cost
Population

674,800

684,061

+1%

Events for Service

162,349

162,678

No change*

Police to Population Ratio

1:501

1:488

-3%

Operating Budget
Tax Supported Expenses

$181,837,268.00

$191,542,030.00

+5%

Per Capita Cost

$269.47

$280.00

+4%

STAFFING
Sworn Officers (Authorized)

1348

1361

No change*

Sworn Officers (Actual)

1411

1400

No change*

Non-sworn Staff (Authorized)

368

371

No change*

Non-Sworn Staff (Actual)

413

450

+9%

Male Officers

1213

1200

No change*

Female Officers

198

200

No change*

CRIMINAL CODE OFFENCES
Against Persons

10,698

10,432

-3%

Against Property

40,907

46,540

+14%

Other Crimes

4822

4708

-2%

Total Crimes

56,427

61,680

+9%

Persons Charged

16,525

13,604

-18%

Clearance Rate

24%

25%

+1%

 TRAFFIC ACT OFFENCES
Police Issued

53,245

58,600

+10%

Photo Radar

110,658

96,594

-15%

Offence Notices Total

163,903

155,194

-6%

Fatalities

13

20

+54%

PROFESSIONAL STANDARDS UNIT
Criminal Files Initiated

28

25

 -11%***

Criminal Files Sustained

0

0

No change

Regulatory Files Initiated

24

24

No change*

Regulatory Files Sustained

1

2

+100%**

Data Source – Winnipeg Police Service 2009 and 2010 Annual Reports

*  no change means the variance was less than 1%

** when the numbers are small a large percentage change has limited meaning in a statistical sense

*** correction from original version of this post

For the most part this post concludes my examination of the statistical portion of the 2010 Annual Report with a caveat.  A new category “Multiple Districts” was added to the  Highway Traffic Act Offences (by District) table.   As with the other new categories introduced in the 2010 Annual Report, there is no note to describe the change.

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3 comments on “Flaws in the 2010 Winnipeg Police Annual Report – Part IV

  1. John Matthews says:

    The flaws pointed out in the four posts do not surprise me. It would seem to me that the political “spin doctors” are just becoming more creative, perhaps to get in synch with the other levels of government. Somehow, I doubt that there will be any “official” response to your assessments. However, should you receive any, I trust that they will be included in a future post.

    Very interesting reading, Menno!

  2. Sel Burrows says:

    Hi Menno,
    Your analysis has been extremely useful. I was surprised to read you were finished with the Statistics. in the annual report.. Any chance you could compare Winnipeg to Regina, saskatoon edmonton, etc?
    I am very interested in the very large drop in the persons charged. Is this the arrest of people who comitted a lot of offenses or the choice not to arrest a lot of people even thought the police “Cleared” the offence..
    Any further thoughts on the drop in charges

  3. Sean says:

    I agree with John. It’s sad, but I expect this kind of behavior. Cover it up to make everything look better then it is. I want open data! Seriously, I don’t expect this report to show wonderful things all the time, but I’d like a government that wants to work with me to make my city better, not try to trick me at every turn.

Comments are closed.