The numbers in this post are based on the 10 crime types tracked by the City of Winnipeg Crimestat program between January 1 2015 and December 31 2015.
* The original version of the post represented crime numbers up until December 28th 2015.
City Wide Highlights
Murders are down by 19%, with 22 compared to 27 in 2014.
Attempted theft of motor vehicle is down 10%.
Sexual assaults are down 4%.
Theft of motor vehicle is up 3%.
Non-commercial robberies (muggings) are up 3%.
Shootings are up 9%
Break and enter other (stand alone buildings) are up 10%
Residential break ins are up 19%.
Commercial break ins are up 22%.
Commercial robberies are up 36%.
District 1 saw an overall increase of 15%*. The increase can be largely attributed to break ins other (57%), residential break ins (29%), attempt theft of motor vehicle (17%) and theft of motor vehicle (12%). Most other categories were static. On a positive note murders dropped by 50% to 7 from 14 in 2014.
District 2 saw an overall increase of 20%*, led by commercial break ins (51%), commercial robberies (21%), break and enter other (18%), residential break ins (15%), and theft of motor vehicle (17%).
District 3 was the only district that saw a drop in crime, down 5%*. Attempt theft of motor vehicle was down (22%), theft of motor vehicle down (19%), break and enter other down (16%), commercial break ins down (14%). Commercial robberies were up (44%), as were sexual assaults (29%), and residential break ins (14%).
The increase in District 4 was 16%*. The biggest factors contributing to the increase were commercial robberies (83%), commercial break ins (50%), residential break ins (20%) and non commercial robberies (10%).
The area defined as the ‘Downtown’ saw an increase of 6%. The offences that pushed the numbers up in the downtown area were primarily break and enter other (143%), and residential break ins (32%).
- Residential break ins were up in all four Districts ranging from 14 to 29%, with a city-wide average increase of 19%.
- The number of stolen vehicles went up in all districts except District 3 which saw a reduction of 19%.
- Break and enter other increased in all districts except District 3 which saw a reduction of 16%.
- Commercial break ins went up 22% city-wide but were reduced by 14% in District 3.
- What, in policing terms, was done differently in District 3 compared to the other three Districts in 2015?
- Were a significant number of personnel assigned to the other three Districts shifted to District 3?
- What steps will the Winnipeg Police Service be taking to address the significant increase in the number of break ins and robberies?
A future post will provide a further breakdown of crime by Electoral Wards, as well as a look at some specific neighbourhoods.
The statistics in the original post which covered the period from January 1, 2015 to December 28 2015 have been amended to correspond to what currently appears on the Crimestat site which included the last 3 days of 2015.
The changes made are as follows:
City wide rate changed from +9% to +11%
District 1 from +12% to +15%
District 2 from +18% to +20%
District 3 from -6% to -5%
District 4 from +15% to +16%
[…] by jaydengreenwood [link] [2 […]
Never have been sure what these stats mean in real terms. Problem I see is that if there were 4 B&Es in my District in 2016 compared to 2 in 2015 that would represent an alarming 50% increase while the probability of me personally being a victim of a B&E would remain negligible
Averages are in my mind a pretty weak statistical measure. They are too susceptible to being used in a way that comports with the notion that “If you torture the data long enough it will confess.” Often they seem the favorite of those who wish to support otherwise unsupportable positions or agendas.
Personally, I would find it more meaningful if the Police Service were to report the trend over time in the liklihood that I would be a victim crime. This would of course not support the possible “drive in fear” or the “look what a great (or poor) job the WPS is doing” agenda since the probabilty of any individual becoming a victim of most crimes is likely close to that of sinking a hole in one – maybe less.
However, that ranted, even though the average itself does not tell us much the probability of becoming a victim remains greater than zero. Accordingly, as the WPS advises, folks should to do what they can to secure themselves and their property, not drive while impaired or using a cell phone, and stay out of dark alleys.